The Racing Blog

First A1GP win for Team GB

25 March 2007 - 18:37

I know I've really neglected A1GP since the middle of the first season, so posting about it now that we are two-thirds of the way through the second season will probably seem a bit opportunistic, but I couldn't pass up the opportunity of congratulating Team GB and Oliver Jarvis on their first win in Mexico.

I've witnessed several A1GP races now where things went wrong just as GB driver Robbie Kerr was in a good position and many more where the GB car ran reliably and nothing went wrong, but France (in season 1) or Germany (in the current season) just had too much pace to be caught. By contrast, in this weekends meeting everything went smoothly for GB, the car had good pace and equally important, almost every other country had some disaster befall them.

The start of the sprint race saw Mexic get squeezed at the rolling start, touching Brazil's rear and spinning them into Germany. Brazil and Germany had to retire but Mexico only needed a new front wing and was able to claim the fastest lap later on in that race, collecting the only point they would see during the meeting. Fortunately Malaysia's Alex Yoong and GB's Oliver Jarvis got away ahead of all that and stayed one and two for the remainder of the sprint. The sprint race scores down to 6th place this season (was 10 in season 1), so there aren't so many points available in that race (although all points are welcome!), but the most important thing is, it put GB second on the grid for the much longer feature race.

The feature race uses a standing start and in that Malaysia had clutch problems. Poor Alex Yoong was down in 7th by the time he actually got going. Malaysia's loss was very much GB's gain. Jarvis got away with a handy lead, followed by USA. And barring the change in positions inevitable during the pitstops, this is how it stayed for the rest of the race. In fact the cameras spent little time covering Team GB and USA's race because there was much more challenging driving going on behind. There were plenty of the order changes that set A1 apart from certain other forms of motorsport - New Zealand, Mayalsia and Portugal ran together and swapped positions during the second half of the race. But at the front, things were more like Formula 1 with GB and USA maintaining almost the same lap times and gap lap after lap with South Africa a bit further back. In the commentary Ben Edwards tried to put "the curse of Murray Walker" on Jarvis, but it didn't work :) There were no punctures or other random problems to stop him and at last GB have their first win.

The points from the 2nd in the sprint and the win in the feature race lift GB up to third in the championship behind Germany and New Zealand (both cars being prepared by David Sears of Supernova fame). For what is a much more independent operation, GB's 3rd place in the championship is pretty credible. Of course that shouldn't be an excuse for not regularly challenging for wins, but it's just the way it is when you're competing agains a two-car team run by the guy who's cars dominated Formula 3000 (A1GP's cars being a development of the old Lola F3000 chassis).

I don't know how Robbie Kerr will have felt watching this win from the pits. He's come close a few times and put in decent drives in many more races. He so wanted to take GB's first win and while I'm sure he is glad for the team, it must be a bit gutting seeing a team mate take the win.

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2007 Season preview and predictions

16 March 2007 - 20:52

If you consider it cheating unless predictions are made before the start of qualifying, then I have less than an hour to go to get these out and published (not that anyone is going to read them today, but anyway :)

The Teams

If we go on pre-season testing (not always reliable but better than just going on hunches I think), Ferarri and McLaren should be battling it out for the title this year. At the end of last season I would have said that Ferrari were odds-on to be the dominant team in 2007. As long as they don't make a hash of the aero and their engine is as reliable as it should be, then their experience with Bridgestone tyres (and close relationship with the company) should put them ahead of the pack by a decent margin. Early pre-season testing was disappointing for Ferrari, but in the final tests and in Friday practice in Melbourne, they have shown that they are leading the grid.

McLaren are desperate to turn around their performance after a massively disappointing 2006 season and also show that the departure of Adrian Newey has not damaged them. The new car features some interesting changes to the 2006 car but the most interesting change is that it is fast. Whether they can challenge Ferrari over the course of the season remains to be seen, but McLaren look like the most likely to win other than them.

Renault have won back to back constructor's championships but have seemingly had trouble adapting to the spec Bridgestone tyres in use this year. I wouldn't count them out for the season, but considering their driver lineup, I don't see them winning either championship this year.

BMW Sauber have been surprisingly fast in pre-season testing with Felipe Massa proclaiming that he expects the challenge to come from the refridgerator-white cars this year. Practice times in Australia show that BMW could be challenging for third place this season (pushing Renault down to third), but I don't expect them to bother McLaren and Ferrari consistently. There could be a surprise win for Robert Kubica though, much as there was for Jensen Button last year.

Honda have been slow in pre-season testing with their technical director already declaring that they plan to completely redesign the aero package at the earliest opportunity. They could improve during the season and it's hard to decide if you'd rather be highly rated pre-season and disappoint during it, or be badly rated pre-season and then improve during the course of the year. Their whole tree-hugger prublicity campaign and ridiculous livery don't endear them to me either. One thing is for certain: they won't be challenging for any championships and I doubt Button will get another win either.

Despite Red Bull having Adrian Newey to design the 2007 car from scratch, they look no better now than they did a year ago. The car is woefully unreliable and when it works it's not too fast. If they don't abadon this one after the first three races to work on the 2008 car, they could get some performance out of it, but don't expect them to bother the top four teams.

Toyota haven't changed a bit from 2006 either. I can't think of a single thing worth saying about them. Sorry if you're a Toyota fan.

Both Super Aguri and Toro Rosso have customer versions of the Honda and Red Bull cars respectively. This is a matter of much controversy which I will save for another post. So far it seems the Super Aguri has improved a lot (well, it could hardly get worse than the Scrap-heap Challenge car they used in 2006) and the Toro Rosso is suffering from having done even less testing mileage than the Red Bull.

Spyker is the new name for Midland. They've made an all new car apparently, but it again, looks not a lot different from the old one. Oh, and they've hired Mike Gascoyne (reuniting him with what remains of the old Jordan staff). I'm not sure if that's a good thing or not. Clearly he's going to improve the capabilities of the team, but on the other hand, he has a tendency to take designs in an odd direction compared to other teams. Either way, he didn't join in time to have much impact on the 2006 car and so now planning one of his trademark ''b' revisions. Most pundits have Spyker as the last-placed team this year, but my feeling is that Toro Rosso will actually suffer for using the under-developed Red Bull chassis mated with the Ferrari engine and as such Spyker could avoid being on the back row from time to time. It looks like they have been overhauled by Super Aguri though.

The Drivers

If I didn't already make it clear how impressed I was with Felipe Massa in my 2006 review: he is my clear prediction to win the 2007 driver's championship. If Ferrari have the best package (and I think they do), then I expect Massa to be world champion come October. The conventional wisdom had Raikkonen being the number 1 driver if he moved to Ferrari, but judging by his lack of motivation last year, I think he's a spent force in Formula 1. He'll have some wins for sure, but I think Massa, having been with the team for several years in various capacities and having won twice in 2006, will have the better of the Finn.

I expect McLaren to be the ones to challenge Ferarri and I expect Fernano Alonso to be the McLaren driver to do it. That's a pretty safe prediction anyway. I expect Lewis Hamilton to put in some good performances like Nico Rosberg and Robert Kubica did last year, but I expect him to make some mistakes as well and it'll be DNFs rather than a lack of speed that will put a dent in his championship hopes.

Renault made some odd choices about their 2007 driver lineup, much earlier than they needed to. They knew they needed to replace Alonso and that test driver Heikki Kovalainen was the man to take that seat, but sticking with the consistently disappointing Fisichella was a very strange decision in my opinion. I expect Kovalainen to comprehensively outpace and outscore Fisichella this year and it should be the last year for this journeyman in Formula 1.

As for the rest of the drivers, do we care much about what they do? They don't have the cars to win (with the possible exception of Robert Kubica). I feel sorry for Australian fans. A few years ago it looked like Mark Webber had a bright career ahear of him, but he's made two decisions now which are questionable. Going to Williams was a mistake, obviously. But going from there to Red Bull is equally curious - he doesn't seriously think Adrian Newey can turn that team into winners in one year does he? The rumour is that in both moves (from Jaguar to Williams and from Williams to Red Bull), he had a chance to go to Renault. Things aren't necessarilly that simple, but it seems obvious that if he even had half a chance to go to Renault he should have taken it.

Top Fives

Driver's Championship:

1. F. Massa
2. F. Alonso
3. K. Raikkonen
4. H. Kovalainen
5. L. Hamilton

Constructor's Championship:

1. Ferrari
2. McLaren
3. Renault
4. BMW
5. Honda

Feel free to add any predictions of your own in the comments.

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2006 Predictions review

16 March 2007 - 19:55

With the qualifying for the first race of the 2007 season only hours away now I am pressed for time because I really wanted to get in a predictions posting before the start of the season. But I also wanted to take a look back at my 2006 predictions first.

My 2006 preview and predictions article can be found in the archives. I promise I have not edited it in any way since it was originally posted (even though I've noticed some howling typos and spelling mistakes reading it back just now).

The Teams

I said "The R26 has been reliable straight out the box. It's the obvious thing to pick Renault to repeat their win of the constructors championship and the obvious thing is usually right." And I was right, but only just. If Michael Schumacher's engine hadn't blown in Japan it could all have been so different.

On McLaren I wrote "I expect McLaren to challenge for the championship if they stay reliable, but that's a big 'if'. Otherwise they could not only lose out to Renault again but could also drop down behind Honda." In the event, McLaren were not only unreliable but also off the pace in too many races. Add to that several seemingly unnecessary crashes and a mid-season departure for Montoya and a "can't be bothered with it any more" attitude from Raikkonen and it lead to the first winless season for McLaren in a long time. They still finished ahead of Honda though :)

On Ferrari I wrote "I think Ferrari are the most unknown quantity going into the 2006 season. They may surprise us and dominate like that have in seasons past, on the other hand, they could have another year to forget with their talisman, Schumacher retiring at the end." That was mostly how in panned out in the end. Ferrari had problems at the start of the season, but they really turned things around and looked almost certain to overtake Renault and win until that engine failure. Schumacher's retirement at the end of the season was a matter of huge speculation even before the 2006 season started, so although my year-old article does sound prescient now, it really wasn't.

"Honda look like they might win races this season at long last." Well they did with Jenson Button's victory in an unusually wet Hungarian Gran Prix, but it was a single happy event in what was otherwise a pretty forgetable season for the team. Touted as one of the "big 4" before the start of the season on the basis of testing pace, in the end they managed fourth in the constructors championship, but were some ways behind even a winless McLaren. Further down I wrote "I think Honda will be ahead of Ferrari this year and if McLaren are unreliable in the races, they may pass them to finish 2nd in the constructors once more." Obviously completely and utterly wrong.

Even the small amount of optimisim I allowed for Williams was misplaced: "Williams could win a race or two this year, but even if they surprise out of the box, they will find it difficult to keep pace with developments from the manufacturer teams throughout the season." They did surprise with their pace in the first race but still only managed 6 and 7th places. The season went downhill from there with poor reliability and a disgruntled Mark Webber left at the end of the year.

I didn't share the Toyota chairman's confidence about his Formula 1 team's chances in 2006: "Based on their testing times, and the much hyped, but ultimately unconvincing revised aero package for Bahrain, I don't expect them to improve on their 2005 form." In fact they performed worse in 2006 dropping from 4th in the constructor's with 88 point to 6th with 35 points. Additionally I wrote of their technical director: "There is a real possibility of the highly-rated Mike Gascoyne losing his job if Toyota slip back this year in my opinion." As we all know, Toyota didn't wait until the end of the season to sack Gascoyne.

Aside from predicting that Honda might finish 2nd in the constructor's, by biggest mistake concerned my analysis of BMW Sauber's chances. I said that BMW wouldn't improve on Sauber's efforts and the whole exercise would be an expensive disaster for the BMW company. In the end BMW Sauber finished 5th in the constructor's, one point ahead of Toyota. That compares very well to the 8th place (with only 7 points scoring races) Sauber managed in 2005.

Red Bull had a season to forget with their first new car (the 2005 effort was a legacy of the Jaguar days) and the expensive supply of Ferrari engines. It started with a dismal pre-season (that has been repeated this year worryingly for Webber fans). I wrote: "For 2006, I expect Red Bull to suffer early on in the season, rising to their former mid-field position from the middle of the season onwards." In fact things got worse as the season went on and the team concentrated all their efforts on the 2007 car. By the end of 2006 David Coulthard was complaining in interviews that their all-new car was worse than the old jag he drove in 2005. Harsh. I don't think it was actually true, but with no development during the season it seemed like they were slipping backwards all the time. They had a lucky podium finish in Monaco but finished the season in 7th place in the constructor's with only Williams and the three no-hopers behind them.

Toro Rosso managed with the hand-me-down Red Bulls (which were hand-me-down Jaguars before that) and de-tuned, restricted V10 engines. They only managed one point all season, but it was still enough for the old Minardi team to finish ahead of Midland and Super Aguri. Midland were to subject of constant take-over speculation before the season had even started and were sold to Dutch supercar manufacturer Spyker before the season was done. Nothing was done to improve their form during the season and even though they claimed to have invested in an all new car for 2006, it still looked as boxy and old-fashioned as the previous Jordan efforts. Super Aguri can be proud to have competed all 18 rounds of the 2006 season on what must have been the smallest budget by far. Their old Arrows chassis sported a surprisingly large number of modifications throughout the season but none of them seemed to make it go any faster. I predicted not much for these three teams and that's what they produced.

The Drivers

I did about as well in my predictions for the driver's championship. I predicted that Alonso, Raikkonen, Schumacher and Button would do the best for their teams. That was true. I also dismissed thoughts that Fisichella might benefit from Alonso pre-anouncing his move to McLaren a year in advance. Fisichella had a typically disappointing season.

On the other hand, I claimed that Montoya could be just as good as Raikkonen and he didn't even finish the season. I predicted that Button and Barrichello would be evenly matched in the Honda. They did finish next to each other in the driver's championship at the end of the season (6th and 7th), but Jenson claimed nearly double the points of Rubens (56 to 30), so they weren't too evenly matched.

By far my biggest error in my driver predictions was dismissing the impact that Felipe Massa woud have in the second Ferrari. Based on his performances for Sauber, the fact that Ferrari had used him as a test driver previously and the wealth of talent in the drivers market, I thought it was a mistake of Ferrari to replace Barrichello with Massa - I thought it was only a stop-gap measure and that Massa was selected so that Schumacher didn't feel threatened. How wrong could I be? By the end of the 2006 season, Massa had won two races and finished third in the driver's championship. The first of those wins was in Turkey and came at his teammate's expense (Schumacher having to queue behind Massa in the pitlane during a safety car period because he'd been out-qualified by Massa). The second win was a lights-to-flag victory on his own turf in Brazil - something Barrichello had failed to produce in so many seasons - and it completely overshadowed both Alonso winning the championship for a second time and the event of Schumacher's final race. So much for not being a threat to his teammate!

Conclusion

I think I got more right than wrong here. There were a couple of big blunders though (Massa and BMW). Hopefully I'll do a bit better with my 2007 season prictions coming up shortly.